Françoise GOURMELON, Thomas HOUET, Christine VOIRON-CANICIO, Thierry JOLIVEAU. Geoprospective, contribution of the spatial approaches to prospective
A geo-prospective approach to forecasting spatial change
At a time when the present economic and financial models are being questioned as to their ability to forecast extreme events and resulting crises, this article considers the issue of how to anticipate change, and more particularly spatial change in a geoprospective approach. It proposes a critical analysis of the methods, theories and empirical practices designed to forecast coming change, whether change is considered probably or merely possible. Particular attention is paid to the meaning of spatial change and the issue of spatial emergence. New lines of research combining quantitative and qualitative approaches are also proposed.
keywords: ANTICIPATION, GEO-PROSPECTIVE, HAZARD, SIMULATION, UNCERTAINTY
What land purchase patterns have to say about the future of territories: prospective elements in southeast France (2 encadrés; 13 fig.)
Three analyses of the rationales of the acquisition of building land in south-east France are presented. The aim is to apprehend the types of change underway, the way in which changes occur and the opportunities afforded. This research sets out to improve methodology in prospective approaches to territory, an area in which institutional stakeholders have considerable expectations. The prospective results derived from analyses of the dynamics of land ownership put new perspectives on the choice of territorial action. The prospective approach that emerges, intended for use by territorial stakeholders, places space and its dynamics at the centre of the analysis, and establishes a logical link with planning orientations.
keywords: LAND DYNAMIC, SPATIAL ANALYSIS, TERRITORIAL PROSPECTIVE
Companion modelling: a variant of geo-prospective approach (2 fig., 1 photo)
At the intersection between spatial models, spatial scenarios and collaborative thinking about the future of a given territory, the geo-prospective approach gives unequal weights to these three aspects. This paper analyses how far companion modelling can be seen as belonging to the geoprospective approach, and in what specific form. First the three steps of the modelling procedure will be presented: eliciting the model, co-constructing the theoretical model, defining and simulating scenarios. Then the paper will look at the degree of realism of spatial models, the integration of different scales in time and space, and the role of the modeller and the models developed as intermediaries between stakeholders and their territories.
keywords: COMPANION MODELLING, PARTICIPATORY APPROACH, PROSPECTIVE, SPATIAL REPRESENTATION
Perennial biomass crops and their territorial patterns. A case-study of Miscanthus in the Côte d’Or area, Bergundy, France (3 fig., 8 tabl.)
The cultivation of miscanthus, a new crop used in agriculture for the production of energy and biomass, can constitute a risk of competition for agricultural land use. Modelling its spatial distribution is therefore required to anticipate changes in patterns of land use across a territory. Given the lack of information about the factors that determine the localisation of the crop in a territory, detailed understanding of the choices made by farmers is a prerequisite for the construction of a model. This paper presents the results of a study involving ten farmers, and shows the complexity of their decisional processes and the diversity of practice in the localisation of the crop.
keywords: DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT, LAND USE, MISCANTHUS, MODELLING, PROSPECTIVE STUDY
The geo-prospective approach: an emerging field of research?
This article starts by delineating the relationship between the emerging field of geoprospective and the disciplinary fields with which it is associated (prospective approaches, spatial simulation methods, and participatory approaches to territorial projects). The aim is to elucidate its boundaries and to explore its more original aspects, using studies presented in the MAGIS seminar organized on this theme in 2011. A comparative approach highlights the diversity of geoprospective applications, certain specific features (detailed spatialization of ongoing processes and the integration of stakeholders in the different phases), and its possibilities for future development.
keywords: GEO-PROSPECTIVE, SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT, SPATIAL SIMULATION, TERRITORIAL DECISION-MAKING
Reflexive strategies in planning for adaptation to environmental change
Current approaches to adapting to climate change has left the field of participatory strategies relatively open. This paper examines a range of possible solutions before focusing on the reflexive practices to be implemented to promote a balanced approach to participatory processes that address climate change
keywords: ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, PLANNING THEORY, REFLEXIVE STRATEGY, URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING
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Last modified: May 31, 2013